Russia Defies Trump: How Europe and Germany Prepare for a Prolonged War
Russia’s military operations continue to expand, and despite U.S. diplomatic pressure, an early end to the war seems unlikely. German Chancellor Merz has underscored the necessity of preparing for a prolonged conflict, urging Europe to adopt structural measures for long-term resilience. NATO’s latest defense spending data and recent European policy moves highlight that such preparations are already underway.
Chapter 1. The Inevitability of a Long War in Ukraine
Chancellor Merz recently stated, “Wars usually end through military collapse or economic exhaustion, but neither Russia nor Ukraine shows such signs.” His remark was based on concrete data, not rhetoric. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia increased defense spending by more than 12% year-on-year in the first half of this year. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to sustain its frontline with consistent Western military support.
Russia’s official budget report revealed that defense expenditure now accounts for more than 6% of total national spending, the highest level since the Cold War. On the other hand, NATO partners have supplied Ukraine with modern air defense systems and tanks, enabling it to repel much of Russia’s offensive. This reality makes it clear that the conflict will not end soon and that Europe must prepare for the long haul.
European nations are aligning military aid with broader economic and energy security strategies. Germany is scaling up defense industry output, France and the UK have launched joint weapons development programs, and the EU is accelerating alternative energy supplies to reduce reliance on Russian gas. These measures signify not just reactive steps, but fundamental restructuring of Europe’s resilience.
Chapter 2. Trump’s Pressure and Europe’s Independent Response
President Trump imposed a deadline for peace talks on Ukraine, but key European leaders immediately rejected it. Chancellor Merz declared that “peace based on Ukraine’s surrender is unacceptable,” signaling that Europe would not be bound by a U.S.-driven short-term solution.
The European Commission recently issued a report calling for enhanced independent security frameworks. France pledged to increase defense spending to 2.6% of GDP, while the UK revived discussions on creating a “European Reassurance Force.” Germany is also carefully weighing its participation. These steps demonstrate that Europe is no longer merely a follower of U.S. decisions but is asserting itself as an independent actor.
Rather than weakening Europe, Trump’s pressure has actually strengthened internal cohesion within Europe. Member states increasingly agree that Europe must make autonomous decisions for its long-term security, regardless of American political shifts. This transformation may shape future NATO cooperation and EU defense integration.
Chapter 3. Germany’s Leadership and NATO’s Unity
Merz claimed that Germany’s defense budget increase was a decisive factor in keeping NATO intact. NATO’s latest figures confirm that Germany raised defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, more than doubling from just 1.4% a few years ago. This move significantly elevated Germany’s standing within the alliance.
Eastern European members, exposed to direct Russian threats, had long demanded stronger commitments, while Western members hesitated. Germany’s proactive funding helped bridge this gap and reduce the risk of division. NATO’s recent summit recognized Germany’s role as essential to sustaining alliance unity.
However, challenges remain. Germany’s armed forces stand at about 182,000 personnel, with limited readiness for independent large-scale operations. Analysts stress that beyond financial input, Germany must improve troop training, expand manpower, and procure advanced weapons to exercise genuine leadership. Without these efforts, Berlin’s role risks being limited to financial contributions rather than operational capacity.
Chapter 4. The Future of European Security and Germany’s Choices
Merz warned that Russia’s ambitions may not end in Ukraine. If Europe were to accept terms of surrender, Moscow could soon target another European country. This underscores that Europe’s challenge is existential, requiring comprehensive and structural defense planning.
The European Security Council’s latest report outlines three strategic priorities: securing energy independence, strengthening NATO while building autonomous European defense systems, and reinforcing deterrence against further Russian expansion. Though such measures cannot deliver immediate results, they are essential for Europe’s long-term survival.
Germany, with its economic strength and political stability, is positioned to become the cornerstone of Europe’s security. Yet without overcoming its military limitations, that leadership will remain symbolic. Berlin must therefore combine increased funding with tangible improvements in combat readiness and cooperation within NATO. Only then can Germany lead Europe in both policy and practice.
Conclusion
Despite Trump’s pressure, Russia refuses to back down, leaving Europe with no choice but to prepare for a long war. Merz’s remarks highlight not just the ongoing conflict but the broader direction of Europe’s security strategy. Bridging NATO’s divisions and building resilience will be difficult, yet these tasks are essential to safeguarding Europe’s future.
As long as Russia does not stop, Europe cannot retreat. The strategic choices made today by Germany and Europe will shape the security landscape for decades to come.
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